Bodemeister’s impressive performance at the Arkansas Derby is a big reason why he’s the front runner to win the Kentucky Derby this afternoon, but oddsmakers aren’t expecting such a blowout at Churchhill Downs.
With so many good horses in the field, it’s hard to believe any horse will be dominant.
Bovada’s Kentucky Derby Betting Lines are projecting a close finish to the race, and for the winner to be determined somewhere between 1 and 3 lengths. In a round about way, anyway.
In one prop bet, Bovada has a -215 line that the winner will do so by 3 lengths or fewer. In another prop bet, it’s a -225 line that the horse will win by 1 length or more. Using the transitive property I learned as a tot, the sportsbook expects the winner to come in somewhere in the middle.
Bodemeister won by 9 1/2 lengths a few weeks ago at the Arkansas Derby in his final prep race for the Derby. But this field is so interesting that not only will he have to contend with horses like Union Rags and Gemologist. He’ll also have to focus on being patient and running his race.
That might be hard to do with colts like Trinniberg, who’s trainers feel “100 percent” confident he will win. Trinniberg has won his last two races after jockey Willie Martinez took over. He has led at some point in all seven of his career races so far, which could become a factor today. If Trinniberg’s speed puts him ahead early, it could force Bodemeister to chase early on and exhaust his speed.
“The way he’s training now, I’m 100 percent certain he’s going to win,” owner Bisnath Parboo said, according to an article in the Chicago Sun-Times. “He’s doing everything right. We couldn’t ask for nothing more. Nothing more.”
The longest winning margin of any horse in Derby history was a 31-length triumph by Secretariat. In the 40 years since, no horse has been able to be his 
record time of 1:59.40, and Bovada is expecting that number to stay safe for another year. The site lists the over/under winning time at 2:02:25.
“There’s not enough speed in this field to threaten that mark, hence the over-under line being set about three seconds above Secretariat’s record,” said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.